Meeting on July 27 in Turnberry (Scotland), Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen found common ground: a single 15% tariff will apply to the vast majority of European exports.
This duty, applied to imports of European products, will be implemented as of August 1 on entry into the US, in place of the 30% duty previously announced by the US President.
All that remains now is for the 27 EU countries to validate the compromise by the end of the year. But not all EU products are included in this trade agreement: steel and aluminum remain heavily taxed (50%) once current quotas are reached.
On the European side, the Commission (DG TRADE ) plans to eliminate tariffs on certain American products, while a list of reciprocal "zero for zero" exemptions, notably in aeronautics and chemicals, is still under discussion.
In return for this more measured increase, the EU has pledged to purchase $750 billion of US energy (mainly LNG and oil), to invest $600 billion in the US by 2028 and to increase its orders for US military equipment, although the timetable for the latter has not yet been set. The threat of a future increase in US tariffs has therefore not been ruled out, as Washington has warned that if these clauses are not respected, the agreement will lapse and tariffs will rise from 15% to, most certainly, 30%.
It remains to be seen whether the Member States and the European Parliament will ratify the agreement unchanged this autumn. In the meantime, this compromise eases tensions, but does not settle everything. Energy commitments, WTO compatibility, European climate objectives and dependence on US defense technologies all remain on the table. This agreement should therefore be seen more as a respite than as true trade peace. To be continued...
Article written by our Consultant and Expert in International Trade, Jean-Marc Vandenbussche
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